vciy

CVE-2025-50154

INDEX BUILT · 2026-09-20

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Microsoft Windows File Explorer Spoofing Vulnerability

CVE-2025-501544 of 4 sources documented this
45

rank 45 = 19 + 16 + 1 + 9 + 0

rank@v1 · this cycle

Someone is already using it

CISA KEV catalog · public proof-of-concept · FIRST EPSS

EPSS 0.25564  ·  without this subject the record ranks 26

What it costs you if it fires

NVD CVSS base score, then the CNA's own

CVSS 6.5, from the CNA  ·  without this subject the record ranks 29

It is getting worse, not staying still

FIRST EPSS series, rescorings and bad loads removed

rose on 2025-12-18  ·  without this subject the record ranks 44

How much of the world it touches

NVD CPE configurations

15 products in the CPE ranges  ·  without this subject the record ranks 36

Someone else already set the date

CISA KEV remediation due date

no CISA due date  ·  without this subject the record ranks 45

Unaudited dollar value2 of 3 inputs carry a receipt
Exposure$781,000over the next 30 days, if this record is yours
Movement+$290,000on 2025-12-18, the last material move, 7 months before this reading
Basisassumeda published average, not your estate

$781,000 = $4.99M incident cost x 0.6121449559255632 exposure x 0.25564 likelihood

udv@v1 · unaudited · wrong for you until you say what you run

$4.99M is the cost of a breach that happened, from IBM Cost of a Data Breach Report 2026, global average. It is not the value of any asset of yours. That average already covers breaches of every severity, so scaling it by exposure understates a partial-impact record. That is an assumption, not a measurement. Your own asset value goes in the decision record.

Hindsight · the state

0.25564EPSSNOT IN KEVas of 2026-09-20
Severity6.5 MEDIUMreceipt
Harmpartial impactreceipt
Exploitationpublic proof-of-conceptreceipt
Defensefix version namedreceipt
Movementdoubled within 72hreceipt
PLATEAU10Minimal movement since 2026-04-17, 106 days at 0.26, as of 2026-08-01. arc-rules@v1

Foresight · where to check next

CVE-2016-6415Cisco Adaptivevitejs viteminioCVE-2016-2388CVE-2008-065550154

This record is one instance of CWE-200, exposure of sensitive information to an unauthorized actor. The index holds 11146 prior instances of this class, 18 KEV-listed. The nearest of its KEV-listed records are drawn beside this. taxonomy@v1

Full pattern panel

Prior records in this weakness class. Each is its own record, dated and receipted.
Color is a claim, not decoration:the hostile worldthe defenseno signalspoke length is how much of the record matches, not how bad it is

Running Microsoft Windows 10 Version 1507? Check your version

A deterministic range check against the ranges this record publishes. It tells you where a version sits in the record, not whether your deployment is exploitable. No account needed.

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Harm, if it fires from the vector and the weakness

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Reachnetwork-reachable · no privileges required · user interaction required · low attack complexityreceipt
ImpactComplete confidentiality lossreceipt
Scored fromCVSS v3.1 · the CNA's vectorreceipt
Weakness classCWE-200 Exposure of Sensitive Information to an Unauthorized Actorreceipt
Published consequencesCWE-200: Confidentiality: Read Application Data[email protected]

CISA KEV & Federal Remediation Deadline from the record and CISA

The fix, and how long it's been waiting.

Fixed in10.0.10240.21100; 10.0.14393.8330; 10.0.17763.7678; 10.0.19044.6216; 10.0.19045.6216; 10.0.22621.5768; 10.0.22631.5768; 10.0.26100.4946; 6.1.7601.27872…receipt
Patch available sinceNo dated patch-availability record in held sources. The index holds reference URLs without dates and only the current revision of the CVE record, so the day a fix first existed cannot be derived. Only the versions it landed in.

Exploit Status & Known PoCs a ladder, not a score

Current rung: Proof-of-concept published · 3 public repositories, 2025-08-13.

  • RUNG 1Nothing observed in held sources
  • RUNG 2Proof-of-concept published · 3 public repositories2025-08-13receipt
  • RUNG 3Exploited in the wild · CISA KEV listed
  • RUNG 4Ransomware campaign use known

Authority who says so

CVSS, the CNA6.5 MEDIUMreceipt
Exploit probability0.25564 · top 2% of all CVEsreceipt
Blast breadth2 products across 1 vendorderived
Assigned bymicrosoftreceipt
Recorded changes32 · last 19 Sep 2026derived

Affected & Fixed Versions as published

Affected productMicrosoft Windows 10 Version 1507; Microsoft Windows 10 Version 1607; Microsoft Windows 10 Version 1809; Microsoft Windows 10 Version 21H2; Microsoft Windows 10 Version 22H2…receipt
Published rangesmicrosoft windows 10 1507 < 10.0.10240.21100; microsoft windows 10 1607 < 10.0.14393.8330; microsoft windows 10 1809 < 10.0.17763.7678; microsoft windows 10 21h2 < 10.0.19044.6216receipt
Show all 15 published ranges
microsoft windows 10 1507 < 10.0.10240.21100
microsoft windows 10 1607 < 10.0.14393.8330
microsoft windows 10 1809 < 10.0.17763.7678
microsoft windows 10 21h2 < 10.0.19044.6216
microsoft windows 10 22h2 < 10.0.19045.6216
microsoft windows 11 22h2 < 10.0.22621.5768
microsoft windows 11 23h2 < 10.0.22631.5768
microsoft windows 11 24h2 < 10.0.26100.4851
microsoft windows server 2008 r2
microsoft windows server 2012 r2
microsoft windows server 2016 < 10.0.14393.8330
microsoft windows server 2019 < 10.0.17763.7678
microsoft windows server 2022 < 10.0.20348.3989
microsoft windows server 2022 23h2 < 10.0.25398.1791
microsoft windows server 2025 < 10.0.26100.4851
Fixed in10.0.10240.21100; 10.0.14393.8330; 10.0.17763.7678; 10.0.19044.6216; 10.0.19045.6216; 10.0.22621.5768; 10.0.22631.5768; 10.0.26100.4946; 6.1.7601.27872…receipt

A rung lights from a row in the index, never from an assessment. "Held sources" is the true scope of the claim: this index reads the CVE record, NVD, CISA KEV, FIRST's EPSS and public proof-of-concept repositories, and it does not observe attacks.

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Attack path

Network requestrequires user interactionMicrosoft Windows Server 2012CWE-200 information exposureConfidentiality lossC:Hexploits CWE-200data compromise

What it is stated by the CNA

Exposure of sensitive information to an unauthorized actor in Windows File Explorer allows an unauthorized attacker to perform spoofing over a network. receipt

NVD's analysis a second authority

weakness
CWE-200
affected versions
microsoft windows 10 1507 < 10.0.10240.21100; microsoft windows 10 1607 < 10.0.14393.8330; microsoft windows 10 1809 < 10.0.17763.7678; and 12 more, listed in full below
also scored by
[email protected] 6.5 CVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:R/S:U/C:H/I:N/A:N

check it yourself msrc.microsoft.com receipt

Dated events

2025-10-22EPSS moved 0.02 to 0.082025-12-18EPSS moved 0.09 to 0.182026-01-08EPSS moved 0.18 to 0.12

Movement the material steps

13 Aug 20250.0009
18 Dec 20250.18366 · crossed 0.10
15 Jun 20260.25671 · scoring model v2026.06.15
1 Aug 20260.25564

This score more than doubled inside 72 hours. Both observations are in the full history below.

Show all 29 observations
13 Aug 20250.0009
15 Aug 20250.001
18 Aug 20250.00125
19 Aug 20250.01107
2 Sep 20250.00842
13 Sep 20250.00932
16 Sep 20250.01396
18 Sep 20250.01079
27 Sep 20250.01724
17 Oct 20250.01814
19 Oct 20250.02436
22 Oct 20250.07711
28 Oct 20250.06673
31 Oct 20250.07711
18 Nov 20250.09327
21 Nov 20250.07711
12 Dec 20250.08883
18 Dec 20250.18366
8 Jan 20260.11671
20 Jan 20260.11888
3 Mar 20260.13519
8 Mar 20260.15124
17 Apr 20260.15898
28 Apr 20260.19959
8 May 20260.24268
8 Jun 20260.27587
15 Jun 20260.25671
13 Jul 20260.25756
1 Aug 20260.25564

29 observations held. A highlighted step crossed a promotion threshold. A step marked with a scoring model moved because the instrument was replaced, not because the vulnerability changed. receipt

The full biography

EPSS 0.25564Published2025-08-12Public PoC2025-08-13Index as of2026-08-01

Exploit probability more than doubled between 2025-08-18 and 2025-08-19 (0.00125 → 0.01107) and the record had been public for 11 months when this index was last written.

Published 2025-08-12 receipt · Public PoC 2025-08-13 receipt · Index as of 2026-08-01 derived

The pattern, elsewhere

This record is one instance of CWE-200, exposure of sensitive information to an unauthorized actor. The index holds 11146 prior instances of this class, 18 KEV-listed. The nearest of its KEV-listed records are drawn beside this. [email protected]

CVE-2016-6415matches 7 of 8KEV listed · 2016receipt
CVE-2020-3259 · Cisco Adaptive Security Appliance (ASA)…matches 7 of 9KEV listed · 2020receipt
CVE-2025-31125 · vitejs vitematches 7 of 9KEV listed · 2025receipt
CVE-2023-28432 · miniomatches 7 of 9KEV listed · 2023receipt
CVE-2016-2388matches 6 of 8KEV listed · 2016receipt
CVE-2008-0655matches 6 of 8KEV listed · 2008receipt

"Matches n of m" counts the attributes the two records can both be compared on: the CVSS metrics they share a version of, any weakness class beyond this one, and the vendor. fit-rules@v1

11146 records in this class held. The six above are drawn from the ones CISA has listed as exploited, ranked by how much of the record matches this one. That is why every one of them is KEV-listed: the pool is, so the colour on those spokes says nothing the pool has not already said.

No curated product neighbourhood is held for this product, so the records above are the nearest this index can name. The neighbourhood table covers a small set of products and is extended by hand.

Siblings and hubs

Records related to this one

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These are index-wide views, not findings about CVE-2025-50154.

What usually comes next

Everything above needs no account. What is below is work: assembling it, scoping it to your estate, watching it, and handing it to someone else.

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