vciy

CVE-2025-48828

INDEX BUILT · 2026-09-20

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Certain vBulletin versions might allow attackers to execute arbitrary PHP code by abusing Template Conditionals in the template engine

CVE-2025-488284 of 4 sources documented this
48

rank 48 = 24 + 20 + 2 + 2 + 0

rank@v1 · this cycle

Someone is already using it

CISA KEV catalog · public proof-of-concept · FIRST EPSS

EPSS 0.57367  ·  without this subject the record ranks 24

What it costs you if it fires

NVD CVSS base score, then the CNA's own

CVSS 8.1, from NVD  ·  without this subject the record ranks 28

It is getting worse, not staying still

FIRST EPSS series, rescorings and bad loads removed

rose on 2026-07-17  ·  without this subject the record ranks 46

How much of the world it touches

NVD CPE configurations

1 product in the CPE ranges  ·  without this subject the record ranks 46

Someone else already set the date

CISA KEV remediation due date

no CISA due date  ·  without this subject the record ranks 48

Unaudited dollar value2 of 3 inputs carry a receipt
Exposure$2.86Mover the next 30 days, if this record is yours
Movement+$609,000on 2026-07-17, the last material move, 1 month before this reading
Basisassumeda published average, not your estate

$2.86M = $4.99M incident cost x 1 exposure x 0.57367 likelihood

udv@v1 · unaudited · wrong for you until you say what you run

$4.99M is the cost of a breach that happened, from IBM Cost of a Data Breach Report 2026, global average. It is not the value of any asset of yours. That average already covers breaches of every severity, so scaling it by exposure understates a partial-impact record. That is an assumption, not a measurement. Your own asset value goes in the decision record.

Hindsight · the state

0.57367EPSSNOT IN KEVas of 2026-09-20
Severity9 CRITICALreceipt
Harmtotal loss · unauthenticatedreceipt
Exploitationpublic proof-of-conceptreceipt
Defenseno fix version held
Movementdoubled within 72hreceipt
PLATEAU10Minimal movement since 2026-06-15, 93 days at 0.57, as of 2026-09-16. arc-rules@v1

Foresight · where to check next

No weakness class or product neighbourhood is held for this record, so this index cannot name anywhere to check next. That is an absence in the record, not a finding about the software.

Color is a claim, not decoration:the hostile worldthe defenseno signal

Sources disagree here.

Severity score
Mitre9 CRITICALreceipt
NVD8.1 HIGHreceipt
What it costs
MitreComplete confidentiality, integrity and availability loss, with impact beyond the vulnerable componentreceipt
NVDComplete confidentiality, integrity and availability lossreceipt

Both shown, dated. We don't pick winners. disagreement-rules@v1

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Harm, if it fires from the vector and the weakness

Written for the ticket you're about to file.

Reachnetwork-reachable · no privileges required · no user interaction · high attack complexityreceipt
ImpactComplete confidentiality, integrity and availability loss, with impact beyond the vulnerable componentreceipt
Scored fromCVSS v3.1 · the CNA's vectorreceipt
Weakness classCWE-424 Improper Protection of Alternate Pathreceipt
Published consequencesCWE-424: Access Control: Bypass Protection Mechanism, Gain Privileges or Assume Identity[email protected]

CISA KEV & Federal Remediation Deadline from the record and CISA

The fix, and how long it's been waiting.

Fixed inNo fix version in held sources, as the index stood on 16 Sep 2026.
Patch available sinceNo dated patch-availability record in held sources. The index holds reference URLs without dates and only the current revision of the CVE record, so the day a fix first existed cannot be derived. Only the versions it landed in.

Exploit Status & Known PoCs a ladder, not a score

Current rung: Proof-of-concept published · 1 public repository, 2025-06-25.

  • RUNG 1Nothing observed in held sources
  • RUNG 2Proof-of-concept published · 1 public repository2025-06-25receipt
  • RUNG 3Exploited in the wild · CISA KEV listed
  • RUNG 4Ransomware campaign use known

Authority who says so

CVSS, the CNA9 CRITICALreceipt
CVSS, NVD8.1 HIGHreceipt
Exploit probability0.57367 · top 0.97% of all CVEsreceipt
Blast breadth1 product across 1 vendorderived
Assigned bymitrereceipt
Recorded changes34 · last 18 Sep 2026derived

Affected & Fixed Versions as published

Affected productvBulletinreceipt
Published rangesvbulletin 6.0.3receipt

A rung lights from a row in the index, never from an assessment. "Held sources" is the true scope of the claim: this index reads the CVE record, NVD, CISA KEV, FIRST's EPSS and public proof-of-concept repositories, and it does not observe attacks.

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Attack path

Unauthenticated network requestno credentials, no interactionvBulletinCWE-424 weaknessAdjacent componentsscope changeFull compromise (C/I/A)C:H / I:H / A:Hexploits CWE-424scope changedata compromise

What it is stated by the CNA

Certain vBulletin versions might allow attackers to execute arbitrary PHP code by abusing Template Conditionals in the template engine. By crafting template code in an alternative PHP function invocation syntax, such as the "var_dump"("test") syntax, attackers can bypass security checks and execute arbitrary PHP code, as exploited in the wild in May 2025. receipt

NVD's analysis a second authority

severity
8.1 CVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:H/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H
weakness
CWE-424
affected versions
vbulletin 6.0.3
also scored by
[email protected] 9 CVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:H/PR:N/UI:N/S:C/C:H/I:H/A:H

The CNA scored it 9 and NVD 8.1. Both are shown because both were published; we do not pick one.

check it yourself karmainsecurity.com kevintel.com receipt

Dated events

2025-06-01EPSS moved 0.00 to 0.082025-06-30EPSS moved 0.09 to 0.552026-07-17EPSS moved 0.49 to 0.61

Movement the material steps

27 May 20250.00043
2 Jun 20250.10714 · crossed 0.10
20 Jun 20250.08741 · crossed 0.10
30 Jun 20250.5488 · crossed 0.10 and 0.50
17 Jul 20250.66424
18 Nov 20250.77652
15 Jun 20260.48358 · crossed 0.50 · scoring model v2026.06.15
17 Jul 20260.60786 · crossed 0.50
16 Sep 20260.57367

This score more than doubled inside 72 hours. Both observations are in the full history below.

Show all 31 observations
27 May 20250.00043
28 May 20250.0004
1 Jun 20250.0842
2 Jun 20250.10714
20 Jun 20250.08741
26 Jun 20250.0831
28 Jun 20250.0897
30 Jun 20250.5488
8 Jul 20250.60924
17 Jul 20250.66424
25 Jul 20250.69791
29 Jul 20250.67339
3 Aug 20250.68058
16 Aug 20250.69961
15 Sep 20250.68656
26 Sep 20250.67469
6 Oct 20250.68817
23 Oct 20250.73998
18 Nov 20250.77652
21 Nov 20250.73998
23 Mar 20260.73682
21 Apr 20260.81381
23 Apr 20260.73682
15 Jun 20260.48358
5 Jul 20260.47397
9 Jul 20260.48582
17 Jul 20260.60786
27 Jul 20260.6025
17 Aug 20260.60396
28 Aug 20260.5764
16 Sep 20260.57367

31 observations held. A highlighted step crossed a promotion threshold. A step marked with a scoring model moved because the instrument was replaced, not because the vulnerability changed. receipt

The full biography

EPSS 0.57367Published2025-05-27Public PoC2025-06-25Index as of2026-09-16

Exploit probability more than doubled between 2025-06-28 and 2025-06-30 (0.0897 → 0.5488) and the record had been public for 1 year, 3 months when this index was last written.

Published 2025-05-27 receipt · Public PoC 2025-06-25 receipt · Index as of 2026-09-16 derived

Siblings and hubs

Records related to this one

Its defect family

vbulletin

Of the 2 records in this family, this is the only one with public proof-of-concept code, and it holds 1 references to it.

Grouped by shared product and weakness, not by shared vulnerability. Each record's own state is on its own page.

Family membership: held values

This record is one of a group, and the group's page describes all of them. This page is kept and dated, and the defect family's own page is the one we offer for indexing: the whole group.

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What usually comes next

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