vciy

CVE-2022-21849

INDEX BUILT · 2026-09-20

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Windows Internet Key Exchange (IKE) Protocol Extensions Remote Code Execution Vulnerability

CVE-2022-218494 of 4 sources documented this
33

rank 33 = 2 + 23 + 1 + 7 + 0

rank@v1 · scheduled

Someone is already using it

CISA KEV catalog · public proof-of-concept · FIRST EPSS

EPSS 0.06242  ·  without this subject the record ranks 31

What it costs you if it fires

NVD CVSS base score, then the CNA's own

CVSS 9.3, from NVD  ·  without this subject the record ranks 10

It is getting worse, not staying still

FIRST EPSS series, rescorings and bad loads removed

rose on 2025-09-09  ·  without this subject the record ranks 32

How much of the world it touches

NVD CPE configurations

8 products in the CPE ranges  ·  without this subject the record ranks 26

Someone else already set the date

CISA KEV remediation due date

no CISA due date  ·  without this subject the record ranks 33

Unaudited dollar value2 of 3 inputs carry a receipt
Exposure$311,000over the next 30 days, if this record is yours
Movement+$246,000on 2025-06-01, the last material move, 1 year before this reading
Basisassumeda published average, not your estate

$311,000 = $4.99M incident cost x 1 exposure x 0.06242 likelihood

udv@v1 · unaudited · wrong for you until you say what you run

$4.99M is the cost of a breach that happened, from IBM Cost of a Data Breach Report 2026, global average. It is not the value of any asset of yours. That average already covers breaches of every severity, so scaling it by exposure understates a partial-impact record. That is an assumption, not a measurement. Your own asset value goes in the decision record.

Hindsight · the state

0.06242EPSSNOT IN KEVas of 2026-09-20
Severity9.8 CRITICALreceipt
Harmtotal loss · unauthenticatedreceipt
Exploitationnone in held sources
Defensefix version namedreceipt
Movementthreshold crossedreceipt
RISING10Risen from 0.01601 to 0.06242 across 49 observations. arc-rules@v1

Foresight · where to check next

No weakness class or product neighbourhood is held for this record, so this index cannot name anywhere to check next. That is an absence in the record, not a finding about the software.

Color is a claim, not decoration:the hostile worldthe defenseno signal

Sources disagree here.

Severity score
Microsoft9.8 CRITICALreceipt
NVD9.3 CRITICALreceipt
Scoring standard
MicrosoftCVSS v3.1receipt
NVDCVSS v2.0receipt

Both shown, dated. We don't pick winners. disagreement-rules@v1

Running Microsoft Windows 10 Version 1809? Check your version

A deterministic range check against the ranges this record publishes. It tells you where a version sits in the record, not whether your deployment is exploitable. No account needed.

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Harm, if it fires from the vector and the weakness

Written for the ticket you're about to file.

Reachnetwork-reachable · no privileges required · no user interaction · low attack complexityreceipt
ImpactComplete confidentiality, integrity and availability lossreceipt
Scored fromCVSS v3.1 · the CNA's vectorreceipt
Weakness classNo CWE mapping in held sources.

CISA KEV & Federal Remediation Deadline from the record and CISA

The fix, and how long it's been waiting.

Fixed in10.0.17763.2452; 10.0.18363.2037; 10.0.19043.1466; 10.0.20348.469; 10.0.19042.1466; 10.0.22000.434; 10.0.10240.19177; 10.0.14393.4886receipt
Patch available sinceNo dated patch-availability record in held sources. The index holds reference URLs without dates and only the current revision of the CVE record, so the day a fix first existed cannot be derived. Only the versions it landed in.

Exploit Status & Known PoCs a ladder, not a score

Current rung: Nothing observed in held sources.

  • RUNG 1Nothing observed in held sources
  • RUNG 2Proof-of-concept published
  • RUNG 3Exploited in the wild · CISA KEV listed
  • RUNG 4Ransomware campaign use known

Authority who says so

CVSS, the CNA9.8 CRITICALreceipt
CVSS, NVD9.3 CRITICALreceipt
Exploit probability0.06242 · top 7% of all CVEsreceipt
Blast breadth3 products across 1 vendorderived
Assigned bymicrosoftreceipt
Recorded changes49 · last 19 Sep 2026derived

Affected & Fixed Versions as published

Affected productMicrosoft Windows 10 Version 1809; Microsoft Windows Server 2019; Microsoft Windows Server 2019 (Server Core installation); Microsoft Windows 10 Version 1909; Microsoft Windows 10 Version 21H1…receipt
Published rangesmicrosoft windows 10 20h2; microsoft windows 10 21h1; microsoft windows 10 21h2; microsoft windows 10 1607receipt
Show all 8 published ranges
microsoft windows 10 20h2
microsoft windows 10 21h1
microsoft windows 10 21h2
microsoft windows 10 1607
microsoft windows 10 1809
microsoft windows 10 1909
microsoft windows server 20h2
microsoft windows server 2022
Fixed in10.0.17763.2452; 10.0.18363.2037; 10.0.19043.1466; 10.0.20348.469; 10.0.19042.1466; 10.0.22000.434; 10.0.10240.19177; 10.0.14393.4886receipt

A rung lights from a row in the index, never from an assessment. "Held sources" is the true scope of the claim: this index reads the CVE record, NVD, CISA KEV, FIRST's EPSS and public proof-of-concept repositories, and it does not observe attacks.

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What it is stated by the CNA

Windows Internet Key Exchange (IKE) Protocol Extensions Remote Code Execution Vulnerability receipt

NVD's analysis a second authority

severity
9.3 AV:N/AC:M/Au:N/C:C/I:C/A:C
affected versions
microsoft windows 10 20h2; microsoft windows 10 21h1; microsoft windows 10 21h2; and 5 more, listed in full below
also scored by
[email protected] 9.8 CVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:L/PR:N/UI:N/S:U/C:H/I:H/A:H

The CNA scored it 9.8 and NVD 9.3. Both are shown because both were published; we do not pick one.

check it yourself msrc.microsoft.com receipt

Dated events

2024-12-17EPSS moved 0.04 to 0.152025-02-13EPSS moved 0.12 to 0.322026-06-15EPSS moved 0.25 to 0.06

Movement the material steps

8 Feb 20220.01601
7 Mar 20230.01093 · scoring model v2023.03.01
17 Dec 20240.15447 · crossed 0.10
30 Dec 20240.08893 · crossed 0.10
14 Jan 20250.18036 · crossed 0.10
13 Feb 20250.32478
27 Feb 20250.16542
17 Mar 20250.02256 · crossed 0.10 · scoring model v2025.03.14
29 Mar 20250.13005 · crossed 0.10
30 Mar 20250.07627 · crossed 0.10
1 Jun 20250.13005 · crossed 0.10
9 Sep 20250.24648
18 Nov 20250.42278
21 Nov 20250.24801
15 Jun 20260.06242 · crossed 0.10 · scoring model v2026.06.15

This score more than doubled inside 72 hours. Both observations are in the full history below.

Show all 49 observations
8 Feb 20220.01601
7 Mar 20230.01093
24 Jun 20230.00972
7 Jul 20230.01038
4 Aug 20230.00993
19 Aug 20230.01128
16 Oct 20230.01097
31 Oct 20230.01252
27 Dec 20230.01201
7 Feb 20240.01496
21 Feb 20240.01735
4 Apr 20240.01681
16 Apr 20240.02268
14 May 20240.02440
29 May 20240.02775
25 Jun 20240.02872
9 Jul 20240.02807
17 Aug 20240.02998
26 Sep 20240.03131
22 Oct 20240.02930
15 Nov 20240.03971
17 Dec 20240.15447
30 Dec 20240.08893
14 Jan 20250.18036
28 Jan 20250.11811
13 Feb 20250.32478
27 Feb 20250.16542
14 Mar 20250.21675
17 Mar 20250.02256
21 Mar 20250.07627
22 Mar 20250.02256
23 Mar 20250.07627
29 Mar 20250.13005
30 Mar 20250.07627
14 May 20250.08072
1 Jun 20250.13005
20 Jun 20250.14412
7 Jul 20250.15048
20 Jul 20250.11661
30 Aug 20250.14377
31 Aug 20250.1497
1 Sep 20250.1622
9 Sep 20250.24648
15 Nov 20250.24801
18 Nov 20250.42278
21 Nov 20250.24801
1 Apr 20260.24648
6 Apr 20260.24801
15 Jun 20260.06242

49 observations held. A highlighted step crossed a promotion threshold. A step marked with a scoring model moved because the instrument was replaced, not because the vulnerability changed. receipt

The full biography

EPSS 0.06242Published2022-01-11Index as of2026-06-15

Exploit probability more than doubled between 2025-03-22 and 2025-03-23 (0.02256 → 0.07627) and the record had been public for 4 years, 5 months when this index was last written.

Published 2022-01-11 receipt · Index as of 2026-06-15 derived

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