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CVE-2021-45046 · Log4Shell bypass

INDEX BUILT · 2026-10-18

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Apache Log4j2 Thread Context Message Pattern and Context Lookup Pattern vulnerable to a denial of service attack

CVE-2021-450464 of 4 sources documented this
83

rank 83 = 40 + 23 + 0 + 14 + 6

rank@v1 · act now

Someone is already using it

CISA KEV catalog · public proof-of-concept · FIRST EPSS

EPSS 0.99977 · CISA KEV listed  ·  without this subject the record ranks 43

What it costs you if it fires

NVD CVSS base score, then the CNA's own

CVSS 9.0, from NVD  ·  without this subject the record ranks 60

It is getting worse, not staying still

FIRST EPSS series, rescorings and bad loads removed

no persisting rise in 365 days  ·  without this subject the record ranks 83

How much of the world it touches

NVD CPE configurations

63 products in the CPE ranges  ·  without this subject the record ranks 69

Someone else already set the date

CISA KEV remediation due date

CISA remediation date held  ·  without this subject the record ranks 77

Hindsight · the state

0.99977EPSSKEV · LISTED
Severity9 CRITICALreceipt
Harmtotal loss · unauthenticated · ransomware-linkedreceipt
Exploitationransomware use knownreceipt
Defensefix version namedreceipt
Movementscoring model changedreceipt
PLATEAU10Minimal movement since 2023-03-07, 1277 days at 1.00, as of 2026-09-04. arc-rules@v1

Foresight · where to check next

Apache Log4j2Cloud GatewayApache StrutsAtlassianAtlassianCloud Function45046

This record is one instance of CWE-917, improper neutralization of special elements used in an expression language statement ('expression language injection'). The index holds 209 prior instances of this class, 8 KEV-listed. The nearest of its KEV-listed records are drawn beside this. taxonomy@v1

Full pattern panel

Prior records in this weakness class. Each is its own record, dated and receipted.
Color is a claim, not decoration:the hostile worldthe defenseno signalspoke length is how much of the record matches, not how bad it is

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Reachnetwork-reachable · no privileges required · no user interaction · high attack complexityreceipt
ImpactComplete confidentiality, integrity and availability loss, with impact beyond the vulnerable componentreceipt
Scored fromCVSS v3.1 · NVD's vectorreceipt
Weakness classCWE-917 Improper Neutralization of Special Elements used in an Expression Language Statement ('Expression Language Injection')receipt
Published consequencesCWE-917: Confidentiality: Read Application Data; Integrity: Execute Unauthorized Code or Commandscwe-consequences@4.20
Ransomware campaign useKnown (CISA)receipt

CISA KEV & Federal Remediation Deadline from the record and CISA

The fix, and how long it's been waiting.

Fixed in2.16.0receipt
Patch available sinceNo dated patch-availability record in held sources. The index holds reference URLs without dates and only the current revision of the CVE record, so the day a fix first existed cannot be derived. Only the versions it landed in.
CISA remediation statusoverdue since 2023-05-22receipt
CISA required actionApply updates per vendor instructions.receipt
BOD 26-04 deadlineNot worked out yet. CISA scores every KEV entry for the directive, and this index has not loaded its scoring for this one.
Published to CISA KEV503 daysderived

Exploit Status & Known PoCs a ladder, not a score

Current rung: Ransomware campaign use known, 2023-05-01.

  • RUNG 1Nothing observed in held sources
  • RUNG 2Proof-of-concept published · 11 public repositories2021-12-15receipt
  • RUNG 3Exploited in the wild · CISA KEV listed2023-05-01receipt
  • RUNG 4Ransomware campaign use known2023-05-01receipt

Authority who says so

CVSS, NVD9 CRITICALreceipt
Exploit probability0.99977 · top 0.02% of all CVEsreceipt
Blast breadth31 products across 5 vendorsderived
Assigned byapachereceipt
Recorded changes73 · last 30 Sep 2026derived

Affected & Fixed Versions as published

Affected productApache Software Foundation Apache Log4jreceipt
Published rangesapache log4j >= 2.0.1 < 2.12.2; apache log4j >= 2.13.0 < 2.16.0; apache log4j 2.0; apache log4j 2.0-beta9receipt
Show all 63 published ranges
apache log4j >= 2.0.1 < 2.12.2
apache log4j >= 2.13.0 < 2.16.0
apache log4j 2.0
apache log4j 2.0-beta9
apache log4j 2.0-rc1
apache log4j 2.0-rc2
siemens captial < 2019.1
siemens captial 2019.1
siemens captial 2019.1-sp1912
siemens desigo cc advanced reports 4.0
siemens desigo cc advanced reports 4.1
siemens desigo cc advanced reports 4.2
siemens desigo cc advanced reports 5.0
siemens desigo cc advanced reports 5.1
siemens desigo cc info center 5.0
siemens desigo cc info center 5.1
siemens e-car operation center < 2021-12-13
siemens energy engage 3.1
siemens energyip 8.5
siemens energyip 8.6
siemens energyip 8.7
siemens energyip 9.0
siemens energyip prepay 3.7
siemens energyip prepay 3.8
siemens gma-manager < 8.6.2j-398
siemens industrial edge management hub < 2021-12-13
siemens mindsphere < 2021-12-11
siemens navigator < 2021-12-13
siemens opcenter intelligence <= 3.2
siemens operation scheduler <= 1.1.3
siemens sentron powermanager 4.1
siemens sentron powermanager 4.2
siemens siguard dsa 4.2
siemens siguard dsa 4.3
siemens siguard dsa 4.4
siemens sipass integrated 2.80
siemens sipass integrated 2.85
siemens siveillance command <= 4.16.2.1
siemens siveillance identity 1.5
siemens siveillance identity 1.6
siemens solid edge harness design < 2020
siemens solid edge harness design 2020
siemens solid edge harness design 2020-sp2002
siemens spectrum power 4 < 4.70
siemens spectrum power 4 4.70
siemens spectrum power 4 4.70-sp7
siemens spectrum power 4 4.70-sp8
siemens spectrum power 7 < 2.30
siemens spectrum power 7 2.30
siemens spectrum power 7 2.30-sp2
siemens vesys < 2019.1
siemens vesys 2019.1
siemens vesys 2019.1-sp1912
debian linux 10.0
debian linux 11.0
sonicwall email security < 10.0.12
fedoraproject fedora 34
fedoraproject fedora 35
siemens 6bk1602-0aa12-0tp0 firmware < 2.7.0
siemens 6bk1602-0aa22-0tp0 firmware < 2.7.0
siemens 6bk1602-0aa32-0tp0 firmware < 2.7.0
siemens 6bk1602-0aa42-0tp0 firmware < 2.7.0
siemens 6bk1602-0aa52-0tp0 firmware < 2.7.0
Fixed in2.16.0receipt

A rung lights from a row in the index, never from an assessment. "Held sources" is the true scope of the claim: this index reads the CVE record, NVD, CISA KEV, FIRST's EPSS and public proof-of-concept repositories, and it does not observe attacks.

Unaudited dollar value2 of 3 inputs carry a receipt
Exposure$4.99Mover the next 30 days, if this record is yours
Movement+$2.31Mon 2021-12-18, the last material move, 4 years, 8 months before this reading
Basisassumeda published average, not your estate

$4.99M = $4.99M incident cost x 1 exposure x 0.99977 likelihood

udv@v1 · unaudited · wrong for you until you say what you run

$4.99M is the cost of a breach that happened, from IBM Cost of a Data Breach Report 2026, global average. It is not the value of any asset of yours. That average already covers breaches of every severity, so scaling it by exposure understates a partial-impact record. That is an assumption, not a measurement. Your own asset value goes in the decision record.

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What it is stated by the CNA

Log4Shell bypass is the common name for CVE-2021-45046. It was found that the fix to address CVE-2021-44228 in Apache Log4j 2.15.0 was incomplete in certain non-default configurations. This could allows attackers with control over Thread Context Map (MDC) input data when the logging configuration uses a non-default Pattern Layout with either a Context Lookup (for example, $${ctx:loginId}) or a Thread Context Map pattern (%X, %mdc, or %MDC) to craft malicious input data using a JNDI Lookup pattern resulting in an information leak and remote code execution in some environments and local code execution in all environments. cve-aliases@2026-08-27

Read the rest of the CNA's description

Log4j 2.16.0 (Java 8) and 2.12.2 (Java 7) fix this issue by removing support for message lookup patterns and disabling JNDI functionality by default.

NVD's analysis a second authority

severity
9 CVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:H/PR:N/UI:N/S:C/C:H/I:H/A:H
weakness
CWE-917
affected versions
apache log4j >= 2.0.1 < 2.12.2; apache log4j >= 2.13.0 < 2.16.0; apache log4j 2.0; and 60 more, listed in full below
also scored by
9 CVSS:3.1/AV:N/AC:H/PR:N/UI:N/S:C/C:H/I:H/A:H

check it yourself psirt.global.sonicwall.com oracle.com cve.org openwall.com logging.apache.org kb.cert.org +14 morereceipt

Dated events

2021-12-16EPSS moved 0.06 to 0.242021-12-18EPSS moved 0.26 to 0.722023-05-01Added to CISA KEV2023-05-22CISA remediation due2026-06-15EPSS moved 0.94 to 1.00

Movement the material steps

15 Dec 20210.05553
16 Dec 20210.24229 · crossed 0.10
18 Dec 20210.72432 · crossed 0.50
7 Mar 20230.97416 · crossed 0.90 · scoring model v2023.03.01
17 Mar 20250.94313 · scoring model v2025.03.14
15 Jun 20260.99977 · scoring model v2026.06.15

This score more than doubled inside 72 hours. Both observations are in the full history below.

Show all 59 observations
15 Dec 20210.05553
16 Dec 20210.24229
17 Dec 20210.26231
18 Dec 20210.72432
20 Dec 20210.78666
21 Dec 20210.78869
22 Dec 20210.79932
27 Dec 20210.81768
4 Feb 20220.71951
7 Mar 20230.97416
17 Apr 20230.97401
30 Apr 20230.97354
2 May 20230.97503
8 May 20230.96419
14 May 20230.96312
27 May 20230.96197
28 Jun 20230.95662
8 Jul 20230.97411
19 Aug 20230.97405
18 Sep 20230.97410
29 Nov 20230.97409
28 Dec 20230.97428
24 Jan 20240.97404
7 Mar 20240.97390
4 Apr 20240.97363
11 Jun 20240.97365
28 Jun 20240.97406
20 Jul 20240.97364
29 Aug 20240.97307
24 Sep 20240.97337
9 Oct 20240.97333
22 Oct 20240.97299
19 Nov 20240.97292
17 Dec 20240.96668
17 Mar 20250.94313
15 Apr 20250.94417
17 Apr 20250.94313
8 May 20250.94417
10 May 20250.94313
15 May 20250.94417
18 May 20250.94313
8 Jun 20250.9434
15 Jun 20250.94434
18 Jun 20250.9434
25 Jun 20250.94434
27 Jun 20250.9434
16 Jul 20250.94434
17 Jul 20250.9434
16 Sep 20250.94434
18 Sep 20250.9434
17 Oct 20250.94434
19 Oct 20250.9434
29 Oct 20250.94434
30 Oct 20250.9434
18 Nov 20250.9406
21 Nov 20250.9434
21 Apr 20260.94434
22 Apr 20260.9434
15 Jun 20260.99977

59 observations held. A highlighted step crossed a promotion threshold. A step marked with a scoring model moved because the instrument was replaced, not because the vulnerability changed. receipt

The full biography

EPSS 0.99977Published2021-12-14Public PoC2021-12-15CISA KEV2023-05-01Index as of2026-09-04

Listed by CISA 503 days after it published, exploit probability more than doubled between 2021-12-15 and 2021-12-16 (0.05553 → 0.24229) and the record had been public for 4 years, 8 months when this index was last written.

No material movement in 81 days as of the last ingest this index recorded.

Published 2021-12-14 receipt · Public PoC 2021-12-15 receipt · CISA KEV 2023-05-01 receipt · Index as of 2026-09-04 derived

The pattern, elsewhere

This record is one instance of CWE-917, improper neutralization of special elements used in an expression language statement ('expression language injection'). The index holds 209 prior instances of this class, 8 KEV-listed. The nearest of its KEV-listed records are drawn beside this. cwe-consequences@4.20

CVE-2021-44228 · Apache Log4j2matches 8 of 9KEV listed · 2021receipt
CVE-2022-22947 · Spring Cloud Gatewaymatches 7 of 9KEV listed · 2022receipt
CVE-2020-17530 · Apache Strutsmatches 7 of 9KEV listed · 2020receipt
CVE-2022-26134 · Atlassian Confluence Data Centermatches 6 of 9KEV listed · 2022receipt
CVE-2021-26084 · Atlassian Confluence Servermatches 6 of 9KEV listed · 2021receipt
CVE-2022-22963 · Spring Cloud Functionmatches 6 of 9KEV listed · 2022receipt

"Matches n of m" counts the attributes the two records can both be compared on: the CVSS metrics they share a version of, any weakness class beyond this one, and the vendor. fit-rules@v1

209 records in this class held. The six above are drawn from the ones CISA has listed as exploited, ranked by how much of the record matches this one. That is why every one of them is KEV-listed: the pool is, so the colour on those spokes says nothing the pool has not already said.

No curated product neighbourhood is held for this product, so the records above are the nearest this index can name. The neighbourhood table covers a small set of products and is extended by hand.

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